What If Nielsen Disappeared?

Of course, content must remain subject to consistent measurement if it is to be monetized. Therefore, a possible boom in niche content may end up being subverted by the second significant change I anticipate in a Nielsen-less world.

With a major, lucrative void in the measurement space, technology companies will flood to fill the vacuum. Nielsen uses outdated methods to produce ratings, including questionable panels and remote tracking devices. To succeed where Nielsen fails, new contenders would need to provide the strongest and most advanced solutions or risk being swallowed by competitors.

Ideally, the system to eventually emerge would look something like if a telecom like AT&T bought Vizio’s TV manufacturing business and could measure anything that appeared on a screen. Linking  recognized programming to directly measurable telecom data served through a home connection would create an undeniably accurate ratings system that was universal across technologies and products.

Unfortunately, this scenario could also result in a legal nightmare fraught with privacy violations. For that reason, I foresee a third major change that could occur if Nielsen went away: government regulation.

Regulations currently prevent Nielsen from a more invasive tracking approach. Nielsen’s demise may not lead to policy change on its own, but with a massive stake in the matter, I wouldn’t be surprised if tech lobbying and special interest firms seized the opportunity to ask for major changes to allow for a new standard of measurement and analysis.

The death of Nielsen could create short-term chaos in advertising. I can imagine large agency holding groups pulling back on upfront deals or aggressively shifting dollars to other channels such as search, social, audio or programmatic, which would lead to a decline in TV revenues and an industry in disarray.

But as the technology and legal landscape settle, buyers would adopt a standardized buying model, as if nothing had changed. Advertisers would receive better reporting and insights, and a stronger buying industry would emerge from the rubble.

And finally, what would happen to consumers? Imagine a world in which “prime-time” programming was only on during the times you personally wanted to watch it? Imagine if our favorite canceled shows – which we now stream from sketchy websites – were watchable and shareable?

The world has evolved since Nielsen started measuring TV in 1950. The American family does not gather at 7 p.m. to watch TV. Network choices that reflect this ancient rule will no longer define what we watch or when.

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This post was syndicated from Ad Exchanger.